Climate Change Impact on Agricultural Productivity and Environment Influence based on Simulation Model

Abstract

In this paper a physical simulation model SALUS is used to explore crop productivity responses to a range of management strategies over multiple years. This research firstly set up a spatial database of experimental site rice production area polygon identified from satellite images, and collected detail daily weather data from meteorology stations for the past 30 years, with soil profile information and management strategy and genetic coefficient. Secondly, Salus model simulation was applied to accurate reflect real observed yield information to compare with simulated result. The residual mean square of the comparison proved around 90 percent of confidence that the model can successful simulated yield output changes for each year. By running model simulation under different predicted weather regime conditions arising from climate change, the effect on rice crop productivity and the output of carbon emission, nitrate leaching, and irrigation demand in the Red River Delta area of Northern Vietnam are spatially compared. The simulation results showed increased rice productivity in this field due to predicted temperature rise. However, there are high costs associated with environmental effects emanating from carbon emissions, greater nitrate leaching and water resources and fertilizer demand etc. to sustain the rice productivity. This paper examined these critical issues by integrating SALUS model and GIS function to demonstrate the possible output both economically and environmentally affect for better agricultural decision on experimental area.